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About the event
In the past the Dubai conference has become the "can't miss" event in the sugar calendar. In these times of deep uncertainty, it will be even more so. Can you afford not to attend?
Kingsman Dubai Sugar Conferences consistently attract world sugar and ethanol leaders. In February 2008, 411 delegates from 29 countries networked at the conference.


The fifth Dubai Sugar Conference takes place at a time of unprecedented uncertainty in the world sugar market. The financial crisis has led to a credit crunch for market participants. Importers are having difficulty opening letters of credit and international trade is being severely disrupted.
Traditional trade houses are finding their credit lines cut and in turn cutting lines to their own clients, while at the same time being forced to curtail their own activities in the futures and physical markets. Investment banks and hedge funds are seeing massive redemptions and withdrawals and are having to reduce their positions accordingly.
Producers are seeing their access to finance cut, both by the banks and by the trade houses, and are struggling to harvest their crops. In Brazil this is already impacting decisions as to whether to produce sugar or ethanol, or whether to produce at all. Crop inputs such as fertiliser are being reduced to a minimum while field and factory maintenance are being skimped. At the same time expansion plans are being drastically scaled back: the construction of new mills is being put on hold, or simply left on the drawing board. All this will have important implications for future production.
The financial crisis looks likely to develop into a major slowdown in world growth and even into a global recession. This could have implications for sugar consumption. The sugar world has got used to a steady but continuous expansion in global consumption growth, but if aggregate incomes fall, will sugar consumption fall with it?
Meanwhile, a falling oil price is affecting all our assumptions concerning ethanol demand. The recent growth in the Brazilian industry has been driven by the flexfuel motorist and this is likely to continue as flexfuel cars make up an increasing share of the domestic fleet. But if world oil prices fall then the Brazilian industry may find their price umbrella falling as well; Meanwhile, US gasoline demand has been severely affected by the downturn in the US economy: can we expect US ethanol demand to grow while motorists are driving less?
Lastly, the collapse of the Brazilian Real has changed the production economics for both sugar and ethanol and this has already had a profound impact on international prices. But it's not just in Brazil. A revaluation of the Australian dollar has pushed producers there sharply into profit. The collapse of the Russian Rouble may restrict Russian imports.
Although these are all important issues the markets are focusing now only on the demand side of the equation. The supply side destruction resulting from the financial crisis is sure to be significant and will exacerbate a global balance sheet that is heading into deficit. It is difficult to tell when the market will start focussing again on supply, but when it does the price impact could lead to what some analysts are predicting will be a "super-spike".
All this is happening at the same time as the world sugar market is going through its own structural change. EU sugar reform is reducing production in the community and will turn the EU into the world's biggest sugar importer. A massive expansion is already in the works in production in the world's less developed countries.
All of these issues will be discussed at the Fifth Dubai Sugar Conference - A taste of things to come. Industry leaders from Brazil, Thailand, India, the USA, Australia and South Africa will address the audience while specialists and top traders will give their insight into this swirl of current events. Speeches will be short, the panel sessions will be both relevant and productive and the discussions in the halls will change the market over the months to come.
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